feat: warmup dataset for planner load predictor (#5529)

Signed-off-by: hongkuanz <hongkuanz@nvidia.com>

benchmarks/burstgpt_loadgen/README.md

@@ -56,13 +56,15 @@ If `--output-file` is not specified, the output will use the input filename with
 **Filtering:**
 - `--model`: Filter by model (`ChatGPT` or `GPT-4`), None for no filtering
 - `--log-type`: Filter by log type (`Conversation log` or `API log`), None for no filtering
-- `--num-prompt`: Limit number of rows in the final output, None for no filtering
+- `--skip-num-prompt`: Skip the first N rows after filtering (default: 0). Applied **before** `--num-prompt`.
+- `--num-prompt`: Limit number of rows in the final output, None for no filtering (applied **after** `--skip-num-prompt`)
 
 **Timestamp Adjustment:**
 - `--speed-ratio`: Adjust request timing (default: 1.0)
   - Values > 1: Speed up (e.g., 2.0 = 2x faster)
   - Values < 1: Slow down (e.g., 0.5 = 2x slower)
   - Formula: `new_timestamp = old_timestamp / speed_ratio`
+  - After filtering/skip/cap and speed-ratio adjustment, timestamps are shifted so the first kept request starts at `t=0`.
 
 **Hash Generation:**
 - `--block-size`: Block size in mooncake traces (default: 128)

benchmarks/burstgpt_loadgen/convert.py

@@ -41,6 +41,12 @@ def parse_args():
         default=None,
         help="Limit the number of rows to output after filtering. If not specified, all rows are output.",
     )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--skip-num-prompt",
+        type=int,
+        default=0,
+        help="Skip the first N rows after filtering (before applying --num-prompt). Default: 0",
+    )
     parser.add_argument(
         "--speed-ratio",
         type=float,
@@ -80,7 +86,7 @@ def load_csv(filepath):
         return None
 
 
-def apply_filters(df, model=None, log_type=None, num_prompt=None):
+def apply_filters(df, model=None, log_type=None, skip_num_prompt=0, num_prompt=None):
     """
     Apply filters to the DataFrame.
 
@@ -88,6 +94,7 @@ def apply_filters(df, model=None, log_type=None, num_prompt=None):
         df: Input DataFrame
         model: Model to filter by (ChatGPT or GPT-4)
         log_type: Log type to filter by (Conversation log or API log)
+        skip_num_prompt: Number of rows to skip after filtering (before capping)
         num_prompt: Number of rows to keep after filtering
 
     Returns:
@@ -105,12 +112,18 @@ def apply_filters(df, model=None, log_type=None, num_prompt=None):
         filtered_df = filtered_df[filtered_df["Log Type"] == log_type]
         print(f"After log type filter ({log_type}): {len(filtered_df)} rows")
 
+    # Skip rows (before capping)
+    if skip_num_prompt and skip_num_prompt > 0:
+        filtered_df = filtered_df.iloc[skip_num_prompt:]
+        print(f"After skip_num_prompt ({skip_num_prompt}): {len(filtered_df)} rows")
+
     # Apply num_prompt limit
     if num_prompt is not None:
         filtered_df = filtered_df.head(num_prompt)
         print(f"After num_prompt limit ({num_prompt}): {len(filtered_df)} rows")
 
-    return filtered_df
+    # Reset index so downstream iterrows() uses a clean, deterministic range
+    return filtered_df.reset_index(drop=True)
 
 
 def apply_speed_ratio(df, speed_ratio):
@@ -142,6 +155,31 @@ def apply_speed_ratio(df, speed_ratio):
     return adjusted_df
 
 
+def offset_timestamps_to_zero(df):
+    """
+    Offset timestamps so the first request starts at t=0.
+
+    Args:
+        df: DataFrame with a "Timestamp" column in seconds
+
+    Returns:
+        DataFrame with timestamps shifted such that min Timestamp is 0
+    """
+    if "Timestamp" not in df.columns or len(df) == 0:
+        return df
+
+    min_ts = df["Timestamp"].min()
+    if pd.isna(min_ts) or min_ts == 0:
+        return df
+
+    adjusted_df = df.copy()
+    adjusted_df["Timestamp"] = adjusted_df["Timestamp"] - float(min_ts)
+    print(
+        f"Offset timestamps so first request starts at t=0 (subtracted {min_ts:.6f}s)"
+    )
+    return adjusted_df
+
+
 def convert_to_mooncake(df, block_size, num_hash_blocks):
     """
     Convert DataFrame to mooncake format.
@@ -243,6 +281,46 @@ def print_statistics(df):
             print(f"  Total requests: {len(df)}")
             print(f"  Duration: {duration_s:.2f} seconds")
             print(f"  Average RPS: {avg_rps:.2f}")
+
+            # Request rate vs time (ASCII plot, 60-col width)
+            plot_width = 60
+
+            # Target ~20 bins; clamp to at least 1s bins for stability
+            target_bins = 20
+            bin_size_s = max(1.0, duration_s / target_bins)
+            num_bins = max(1, math.ceil(duration_s / bin_size_s))
+
+            counts = [0] * num_bins
+            # Compute per-bin counts using timestamps relative to start
+            for ts_ms in df["timestamp"].tolist():
+                rel_s = (ts_ms / 1000.0) - min_timestamp_s
+                idx = int(rel_s / bin_size_s)
+                if idx < 0:
+                    idx = 0
+                elif idx >= num_bins:
+                    idx = num_bins - 1
+                counts[idx] += 1
+
+            rates = [c / bin_size_s for c in counts]
+            peak_rps = max(rates) if rates else 0.0
+
+            print("\nRequest rate vs time:")
+            print(f"  Bin: {bin_size_s:.2f}s, Peak RPS: {peak_rps:.2f}")
+            if peak_rps > 0:
+                # Use dynamic, fixed-width labels so the bars align
+                max_time_s = max(0.0, duration_s)
+                digits = max(1, len(str(int(math.ceil(max_time_s)))))
+                label_width = (2 * digits) + 2  # "{start}-{end}s"
+                bar_width = max(1, plot_width - label_width - 3)  # " | "
+
+                for i, rps in enumerate(rates):
+                    start_s = i * bin_size_s
+                    end_s = min((i + 1) * bin_size_s, duration_s)
+                    bar_len = int(round((rps / peak_rps) * bar_width))
+                    bar = "#" * max(0, min(bar_width, bar_len))
+                    label = f"{start_s:>{digits}.0f}-{end_s:>{digits}.0f}s"
+                    line = f"{label} | {bar}"
+                    print(line[:plot_width])
         else:
             print("\nRequest Rate:")
             print(f"  Total requests: {len(df)}")
@@ -268,11 +346,16 @@ def main():
     print("\nApplying filters...")
     print(f"Initial rows: {len(df)}")
     filtered_df = apply_filters(
-        df, model=args.model, log_type=args.log_type, num_prompt=args.num_prompt
+        df,
+        model=args.model,
+        log_type=args.log_type,
+        skip_num_prompt=args.skip_num_prompt,
+        num_prompt=args.num_prompt,
     )
 
     # Apply Speedup
     adjusted_df = apply_speed_ratio(filtered_df, args.speed_ratio)
+    adjusted_df = offset_timestamps_to_zero(adjusted_df)
 
     # Convert to mooncake format
     print("\nConverting to mooncake format...")

components/src/dynamo/planner/utils/dryrun_plot_utils.py

@@ -31,6 +31,10 @@ def create_dryrun_plot(
     d_thpt: list,
     safe_d_thpt: list,
     output_path: str,
+    warmup_time: list | None = None,
+    warmup_rr: list | None = None,
+    warmup_isl: list | None = None,
+    warmup_osl: list | None = None,
 ) -> None:
     """
     Create a comprehensive dryrun plot with 4 subplots showing various metrics over time.
@@ -50,12 +54,27 @@ def create_dryrun_plot(
         d_thpt: List of actual decode throughputs
         safe_d_thpt: List of safe decode throughput limits
         output_path: Path where the plot should be saved
+        warmup_time: Optional list of warmup time points (negative seconds)
+        warmup_rr: Optional list of warmup request rates (same units as rr)
+        warmup_isl: Optional list of warmup input sequence lengths
+        warmup_osl: Optional list of warmup output sequence lengths
     """
     fig, ((ax1, ax2), (ax3, ax4)) = plt.subplots(2, 2, figsize=(15, 10))
 
     # Plot 1: Request Rate
+    if warmup_time is not None and warmup_rr is not None and len(warmup_time) > 0:
+        ax1.plot(
+            warmup_time,
+            warmup_rr,
+            "b-",
+            alpha=0.35,
+            linewidth=2,
+            label="Warmup Request Rate",
+        )
     ax1.plot(time, rr, "b-", label="Actual Request Rate", linewidth=2)
     ax1.plot(time, est_rr, "r--", label="Predicted Request Rate", linewidth=2)
+    if warmup_time is not None and warmup_rr is not None:
+        ax1.axvline(0, color="k", linestyle=":", linewidth=2, label="Warmup Boundary")
     ax1.set_xlabel("Time (s)")
     ax1.set_ylabel("Request Rate")
     ax1.set_ylim(bottom=0)
@@ -64,10 +83,34 @@ def create_dryrun_plot(
     ax1.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
 
     # Plot 2: Sequence Lengths
+    if (
+        warmup_time is not None
+        and warmup_isl is not None
+        and warmup_osl is not None
+        and len(warmup_time) > 0
+    ):
+        ax2.plot(
+            warmup_time,
+            warmup_isl,
+            "g-",
+            alpha=0.35,
+            linewidth=2,
+            label="Warmup ISL",
+        )
+        ax2.plot(
+            warmup_time,
+            warmup_osl,
+            "m-",
+            alpha=0.35,
+            linewidth=2,
+            label="Warmup OSL",
+        )
     ax2.plot(time, isl, "g-", label="Actual ISL", linewidth=2)
     ax2.plot(time, est_isl, "g--", label="Predicted ISL", linewidth=2)
     ax2.plot(time, osl, "m-", label="Actual OSL", linewidth=2)
     ax2.plot(time, est_osl, "m--", label="Predicted OSL", linewidth=2)
+    if warmup_time is not None and warmup_isl is not None and warmup_osl is not None:
+        ax2.axvline(0, color="k", linestyle=":", linewidth=2, label="Warmup Boundary")
     ax2.set_xlabel("Time (s)")
     ax2.set_ylabel("Num Tokens")
     ax2.set_ylim(bottom=0)

components/src/dynamo/planner/utils/load_predictor.py

@@ -39,17 +39,29 @@ class BasePredictor(ABC):
     def __init__(self, minimum_data_points=5):
         self.minimum_data_points = minimum_data_points
         self.data_buffer = []
+        # Even if we preload historical data, we still want to ignore the initial
+        # post-deployment idle period (a run of zeros) until we see the first
+        # non-zero datapoint from live traffic.
+        self._seen_nonzero_since_idle_reset = False
+
+    def reset_idle_skip(self):
+        """Reset idle-period skipping state (e.g., after warmup, before live)."""
+        self._seen_nonzero_since_idle_reset = False
 
     def add_data_point(self, value):
         """Add new data point to the buffer"""
         if math.isnan(value):
             value = 0
 
-        if len(self.data_buffer) == 0 and value == 0:
-            # skip the beginning idle period
+        if value == 0 and not self._seen_nonzero_since_idle_reset:
+            # Skip the beginning idle period (leading zeros) even if data_buffer
+            # is pre-warmed with historical data.
             return
-        else:
-            self.data_buffer.append(value)
+
+        if value != 0:
+            self._seen_nonzero_since_idle_reset = True
+
+        self.data_buffer.append(value)
 
     def get_last_value(self):
         """Get the last value from the buffer"""
@@ -81,9 +93,16 @@ class ARIMAPredictor(BasePredictor):
         super().__init__(minimum_data_points=minimum_data_points)
         self.window_size = window_size  # How many past points to use
         self.model = None
+        # Pending points to incrementally update the fitted model with.
+        # This avoids re-running auto_arima() on every step.
+        self._pending_updates: list[float] = []
 
     def add_data_point(self, value):
+        prev_len = len(self.data_buffer)
         super().add_data_point(value)
+        if len(self.data_buffer) > prev_len:
+            # Only queue updates if the value wasn't skipped by BasePredictor.
+            self._pending_updates.append(float(self.data_buffer[-1]))
         # Keep only the last window_size points
         if len(self.data_buffer) > self.window_size:
             self.data_buffer = self.data_buffer[-self.window_size :]
@@ -99,12 +118,20 @@ class ARIMAPredictor(BasePredictor):
             return self.data_buffer[0]  # Return the constant value
 
         try:
-            # Fit auto ARIMA model
-            self.model = pmdarima.auto_arima(
-                self.data_buffer,
-                suppress_warnings=True,
-                error_action="ignore",
-            )
+            # Fit auto ARIMA model once, then only do incremental updates.
+            if self.model is None:
+                self.model = pmdarima.auto_arima(
+                    self.data_buffer,
+                    suppress_warnings=True,
+                    error_action="ignore",
+                )
+            else:
+                # Incrementally update model with any new observations since last predict.
+                if self._pending_updates:
+                    self.model.update(self._pending_updates)
+
+            # Clear pending updates: model is now up-to-date through the latest observed point.
+            self._pending_updates = []
 
             # Make prediction
             forecast = self.model.predict(n_periods=1)
@@ -112,6 +139,7 @@ class ARIMAPredictor(BasePredictor):
         except Exception as e:
             # Log the specific error for debugging
             logger.warning(f"ARIMA prediction failed: {e}, using last value")
+            self._pending_updates = []
             return self.get_last_value()
 
 
@@ -124,6 +152,7 @@ class ProphetPredictor(BasePredictor):
         self.step_size = step_size
         self.start_date = datetime(2024, 1, 1)  # Base date for generating timestamps
         self.data_buffer = []  # Override to store dicts instead of values
+        self._seen_nonzero_since_idle_reset = False
 
     def add_data_point(self, value):
         """Add new data point to the buffer"""
@@ -131,9 +160,13 @@ class ProphetPredictor(BasePredictor):
         timestamp = self.start_date + timedelta(seconds=self.curr_step)
         value = 0 if math.isnan(value) else value
 
-        if len(self.data_buffer) == 0 and value == 0:
-            # skip the beginning idle period
+        if value == 0 and not self._seen_nonzero_since_idle_reset:
+            # skip the beginning idle period (leading zeros), even if pre-warmed
             return
+
+        if value != 0:
+            self._seen_nonzero_since_idle_reset = True
+
         self.data_buffer.append({"ds": timestamp, "y": value})
         self.curr_step += 1
 

components/src/dynamo/planner/utils/planner_argparse.py

@@ -109,6 +109,12 @@ def create_sla_planner_parser() -> argparse.ArgumentParser:
         default=SLAPlannerDefaults.load_prediction_window_size,
         help="Load prediction window size",
     )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--load-predictor-warmup-trace",
+        type=str,
+        default=None,
+        help="Optional path to a mooncake-style JSONL trace file used to warm up load predictors before observing live traffic",
+    )
     parser.add_argument(
         "--metric-pulling-prometheus-endpoint",
         type=str,

components/src/dynamo/planner/utils/planner_core.py

@@ -165,6 +165,36 @@ class Planner:
             window_size=args.load_prediction_window_size,
         )
 
+        # Optional warmup: preload predictors with historical observations from a
+        # mooncake-style JSONL trace (request_count/avg_isl/avg_osl per interval).
+        if getattr(args, "load_predictor_warmup_trace", None):
+            warmup_trace = args.load_predictor_warmup_trace
+            try:
+                metrics = extract_metrics_from_mooncake(
+                    warmup_trace, args.adjustment_interval
+                )
+                for m in metrics:
+                    self.num_req_predictor.add_data_point(float(m["request_count"]))
+                    self.isl_predictor.add_data_point(float(m["avg_isl"]))
+                    self.osl_predictor.add_data_point(float(m["avg_osl"]))
+                logger.info(
+                    f"Warmed load predictors with {len(metrics)} intervals from {warmup_trace}"
+                )
+            except Exception as e:
+                logger.warning(
+                    f"Failed to warm load predictors from {warmup_trace}: {e}"
+                )
+            finally:
+                # Even with warmup data, ignore the initial post-deploy idle
+                # period (leading zeros) when live metrics start coming in.
+                for p in (
+                    self.num_req_predictor,
+                    self.isl_predictor,
+                    self.osl_predictor,
+                ):
+                    if hasattr(p, "reset_idle_skip"):
+                        p.reset_idle_skip()
+
         if "use-pre-swept-results" in args.profile_results_dir:
             config_list = args.profile_results_dir.split(":")
             configs = {
@@ -625,6 +655,13 @@ class Planner:
 
     def dryrun_run(self):
         """Run planner in dry-run mode with dataset"""
+        warmup_metrics = None
+        if getattr(self.args, "load_predictor_warmup_trace", None):
+            warmup_metrics = extract_metrics_from_mooncake(
+                self.args.load_predictor_warmup_trace,
+                self.args.adjustment_interval,
+            )
+
         metrics = extract_metrics_from_mooncake(
             self.args.dataset, self.args.adjustment_interval
         )
@@ -723,6 +760,18 @@ class Planner:
         # plot the results
         from dynamo.planner.utils.dryrun_plot_utils import create_dryrun_plot
 
+        warmup_time = None
+        warmup_rr = None
+        warmup_isl = None
+        warmup_osl = None
+        if warmup_metrics:
+            interval = self.args.adjustment_interval
+            n = len(warmup_metrics)
+            warmup_time = [-(n - i) * interval for i in range(n)]
+            warmup_rr = [m["request_count"] for m in warmup_metrics]
+            warmup_isl = [m["avg_isl"] for m in warmup_metrics]
+            warmup_osl = [m["avg_osl"] for m in warmup_metrics]
+
         create_dryrun_plot(
             time=time,
             rr=rr,
@@ -738,6 +787,10 @@ class Planner:
             d_thpt=d_thpt,
             safe_d_thpt=safe_d_thpt,
             output_path=self.args.output_plot,
+            warmup_time=warmup_time,
+            warmup_rr=warmup_rr,
+            warmup_isl=warmup_isl,
+            warmup_osl=warmup_osl,
         )