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They also found that the empirical distributions of passenger"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,205.0,1552.0,205.0,1552.0,236.0,880.0,236.0],"score":0.99,"text":"incidence times (by time of day) had peaks just before the respec-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,234.0,1553.0,234.0,1553.0,264.0,880.0,264.0],"score":0.99,"text":"tive average bus departure times. They hypothesized the existence"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,264.0,1345.0,264.0,1345.0,296.0,881.0,296.0],"score":0.98,"text":"of three classes of passengers: with proportion"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1362.0,264.0,1552.0,264.0,1552.0,296.0,1362.0,296.0],"score":0.95,"text":"passengers whose"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,295.0,1552.0,295.0,1552.0,325.0,880.0,325.0],"score":1.0,"text":"time of incidence is causally coincident with that of a bus departure"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,326.0,1555.0,326.0,1555.0,355.0,880.0,355.0],"score":0.99,"text":"(e.g., because they saw the approaching bus from their home or a"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,356.0,1195.0,356.0,1195.0,388.0,881.0,388.0],"score":0.99,"text":"shop window); with proportion"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1279.0,356.0,1553.0,356.0,1553.0,388.0,1279.0,388.0],"score":0.99,"text":", passengers who time their"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,388.0,1552.0,388.0,1552.0,416.0,882.0,416.0],"score":0.99,"text":"arrivals to minimize expected waiting time; and with proportion"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1021.0,418.0,1553.0,418.0,1553.0,447.0,1021.0,447.0],"score":1.0,"text":", passengers who are randomly incident. The authors"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,448.0,989.0,448.0,989.0,477.0,881.0,477.0],"score":1.0,"text":"found that"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1008.0,448.0,1553.0,448.0,1553.0,477.0,1008.0,477.0],"score":1.0,"text":"was positively correlated with the potential reduction"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,479.0,1552.0,479.0,1552.0,507.0,880.0,507.0],"score":1.0,"text":"in waiting time (compared with arriving randomly) that resulted"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,510.0,1551.0,510.0,1551.0,536.0,882.0,536.0],"score":0.97,"text":"from knowledge of the timetable and of service reliability. They also"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,539.0,943.0,539.0,943.0,568.0,881.0,568.0],"score":1.0,"text":"found"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[963.0,539.0,1553.0,539.0,1553.0,568.0,963.0,568.0],"score":0.99,"text":"to be higher in the peak commuting periods rather than in"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,568.0,1554.0,568.0,1554.0,599.0,881.0,599.0],"score":0.98,"text":"the off-peak periods, indicating more awareness of the timetable or"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,599.0,1323.0,599.0,1323.0,627.0,881.0,627.0],"score":0.98,"text":"historical reliability, or both, by commuters."},{"category_id":15,"poly":[905.0,1452.0,1551.0,1452.0,1551.0,1483.0,905.0,1483.0],"score":0.99,"text":"Furth and Muller study the issue in a theoretical context and gener-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[883.0,1485.0,1553.0,1485.0,1553.0,1514.0,883.0,1514.0],"score":1.0,"text":"ally agree with the above findings (2). They are primarily concerned"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1513.0,1553.0,1513.0,1553.0,1545.0,882.0,1545.0],"score":0.99,"text":"with the use of data from automatic vehicle-tracking systems to assess"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,1545.0,1553.0,1545.0,1553.0,1574.0,880.0,1574.0],"score":0.99,"text":"the impacts of reliability on passenger incidence behavior and wait-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,1577.0,1551.0,1577.0,1551.0,1606.0,881.0,1606.0],"score":0.98,"text":"ing times. They propose that passengers will react to unreliability by"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[883.0,1608.0,1551.0,1608.0,1551.0,1637.0,883.0,1637.0],"score":1.0,"text":"departing earlier than they would with reliable services. Randomly"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,1636.0,1554.0,1636.0,1554.0,1669.0,880.0,1669.0],"score":1.0,"text":"incident unaware passengers will experience unreliability as a more"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1669.0,1553.0,1669.0,1553.0,1697.0,882.0,1697.0],"score":0.99,"text":"dispersed distribution of headways and simply allocate additional"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,1699.0,1551.0,1699.0,1551.0,1726.0,880.0,1726.0],"score":0.97,"text":"time to their trip plan to improve the chance of arriving at their des-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,1730.0,1551.0,1730.0,1551.0,1759.0,881.0,1759.0],"score":0.98,"text":"tination on time. Aware passengers, whose incidence is not entirely"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,1760.0,1552.0,1760.0,1552.0,1789.0,880.0,1789.0],"score":0.99,"text":"random, will react by timing their incidence somewhat earlier than"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1792.0,1550.0,1792.0,1550.0,1818.0,882.0,1818.0],"score":0.99,"text":"the scheduled departure time to increase their chance of catching the"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[883.0,1823.0,1552.0,1823.0,1552.0,1849.0,883.0,1849.0],"score":0.99,"text":"desired service. The authors characterize these reactions as the costs"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[883.0,1853.0,1031.0,1853.0,1031.0,1880.0,883.0,1880.0],"score":0.95,"text":"of unreliability."},{"category_id":15,"poly":[907.0,630.0,1553.0,630.0,1553.0,658.0,907.0,658.0],"score":1.0,"text":"Bowman and Turnquist built on the concept of aware and unaware"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,662.0,1136.0,662.0,1136.0,690.0,881.0,690.0],"score":0.99,"text":"passengers of proportions"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1155.0,662.0,1196.0,662.0,1196.0,690.0,1155.0,690.0],"score":1.0,"text":"and"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1264.0,662.0,1553.0,662.0,1553.0,690.0,1264.0,690.0],"score":0.99,"text":",respectively. They proposed"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,692.0,1208.0,692.0,1208.0,719.0,881.0,719.0],"score":0.99,"text":"a utility-based model to estimate"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1226.0,692.0,1552.0,692.0,1552.0,719.0,1226.0,719.0],"score":1.0,"text":"and the distribution of incidence"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,721.0,1554.0,721.0,1554.0,751.0,880.0,751.0],"score":0.99,"text":"times, and thus the mean waiting time, of aware passengers over"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,752.0,1553.0,752.0,1553.0,780.0,880.0,780.0],"score":0.98,"text":"a given headway as a function of the headway and reliability of"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,782.0,1081.0,782.0,1081.0,812.0,880.0,812.0],"score":0.99,"text":"bus departure times"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1113.0,782.0,1552.0,782.0,1552.0,812.0,1113.0,812.0],"score":0.99,"text":". They observed seven bus stops in Chicago,"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,813.0,1553.0,813.0,1553.0,841.0,882.0,841.0],"score":0.98,"text":"Illinois, each served by a single (different) bus route, between 6:00"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,844.0,923.0,844.0,923.0,871.0,882.0,871.0],"score":1.0,"text":"and"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1017.0,844.0,1550.0,844.0,1550.0,871.0,1017.0,871.0],"score":0.97,"text":".for 5 to 10 days each. The bus routes had headways"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,874.0,955.0,874.0,955.0,902.0,882.0,902.0],"score":0.95,"text":"of 5to"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1033.0,874.0,1553.0,874.0,1553.0,902.0,1033.0,902.0],"score":0.98,"text":"and a range of reliabilities. The authors found that"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,906.0,1553.0,906.0,1553.0,933.0,882.0,933.0],"score":0.99,"text":"actual average waiting time was substantially less than predicted"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,935.0,1443.0,935.0,1443.0,963.0,881.0,963.0],"score":1.0,"text":"by the random incidence model. They estimated that"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1462.0,935.0,1553.0,935.0,1553.0,963.0,1462.0,963.0],"score":0.96,"text":"was not"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,966.0,1552.0,966.0,1552.0,994.0,881.0,994.0],"score":0.98,"text":"statistically significantly different from 1.0, which they explain by"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,994.0,1552.0,994.0,1552.0,1025.0,880.0,1025.0],"score":0.99,"text":"the fact that all observations were taken during peak commuting"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,1027.0,1552.0,1027.0,1552.0,1054.0,880.0,1054.0],"score":0.99,"text":"times. Their model predicts that the longer the headway and the"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,1058.0,1554.0,1058.0,1554.0,1086.0,881.0,1086.0],"score":0.99,"text":"more reliable the departures, the more peaked the distribution of"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,1088.0,1553.0,1088.0,1553.0,1115.0,881.0,1115.0],"score":0.98,"text":"incidence times will be and the closer that peak will be to the next"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1119.0,1552.0,1119.0,1552.0,1148.0,882.0,1148.0],"score":1.0,"text":"scheduled departure time. This prediction demonstrates what they"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1149.0,1552.0,1149.0,1552.0,1176.0,882.0,1176.0],"score":0.99,"text":"refer to as a safety margin that passengers add to reduce the chance"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[883.0,1181.0,1552.0,1181.0,1552.0,1206.0,883.0,1206.0],"score":0.98,"text":"of missing their bus when the service is known to be somewhat"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1210.0,1551.0,1210.0,1551.0,1238.0,882.0,1238.0],"score":0.98,"text":"unreliable. Such a safety margin can also result from unreliability in"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,1242.0,1553.0,1242.0,1553.0,1269.0,881.0,1269.0],"score":0.99,"text":"passengers' journeys to the public transport stop or station. Bowman"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1271.0,1553.0,1271.0,1553.0,1299.0,882.0,1299.0],"score":0.99,"text":"and Turnquist conclude from their model that the random incidence"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,1301.0,1551.0,1301.0,1551.0,1331.0,880.0,1331.0],"score":0.99,"text":"model underestimates the waiting time benefits of improving reli-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1332.0,1552.0,1332.0,1552.0,1362.0,882.0,1362.0],"score":0.99,"text":"ability and overestimates the waiting time benefits of increasing ser-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[883.0,1363.0,1552.0,1363.0,1552.0,1392.0,883.0,1392.0],"score":0.99,"text":"vice frequency. This is because as reliability increases passengers"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1394.0,1552.0,1394.0,1552.0,1422.0,882.0,1422.0],"score":0.99,"text":"can better predict departure times and so can time their incidence to"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1423.0,1159.0,1423.0,1159.0,1452.0,882.0,1452.0],"score":0.99,"text":"decrease their waiting time."},{"category_id":15,"poly":[175.0,235.0,819.0,235.0,819.0,264.0,175.0,264.0],"score":0.99,"text":"After briefly introducing the random incidence model, which is"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,265.0,818.0,265.0,818.0,295.0,149.0,295.0],"score":0.98,"text":"often assumed to hold at short headways, the balance of this section"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,298.0,818.0,298.0,818.0,324.0,148.0,324.0],"score":0.98,"text":"reviews six studies of passenger incidence behavior that are moti-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,327.0,818.0,327.0,818.0,356.0,148.0,356.0],"score":1.0,"text":"vated by understanding the relationships between service headway,"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[146.0,355.0,820.0,355.0,820.0,388.0,146.0,388.0],"score":0.99,"text":"service reliability, passenger incidence behavior, and passenger"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,388.0,818.0,388.0,818.0,414.0,149.0,414.0],"score":1.0,"text":"waiting time in a more nuanced fashion than is embedded in the"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,419.0,818.0,419.0,818.0,445.0,149.0,445.0],"score":1.0,"text":"random incidence assumption (2). Three of these studies depend on"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,447.0,818.0,447.0,818.0,477.0,147.0,477.0],"score":0.99,"text":"manually collected data, two studies use data from AFC systems,"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,479.0,819.0,479.0,819.0,507.0,148.0,507.0],"score":0.99,"text":"and one study analyzes the issue purely theoretically. These studies"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,509.0,819.0,509.0,819.0,537.0,147.0,537.0],"score":0.99,"text":"reveal much about passenger incidence behavior, but all are found"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,538.0,820.0,538.0,820.0,567.0,147.0,567.0],"score":0.99,"text":"to be limited in their general applicability by the methods with"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[150.0,569.0,818.0,569.0,818.0,597.0,150.0,597.0],"score":0.99,"text":"which they collect information about passengers and the services"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,599.0,458.0,599.0,458.0,630.0,147.0,630.0],"score":1.0,"text":"those passengers intend to use."},{"category_id":15,"poly":[150.0,1219.0,212.0,1219.0,212.0,1247.0,150.0,1247.0],"score":1.0,"text":"where"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[264.0,1219.0,817.0,1219.0,817.0,1247.0,264.0,1247.0],"score":0.99,"text":"is the probabilistic expectation of some random variable"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[168.0,1248.0,209.0,1248.0,209.0,1275.0,168.0,1275.0],"score":1.0,"text":"and"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[283.0,1248.0,601.0,1248.0,601.0,1275.0,283.0,1275.0],"score":0.97,"text":"is the coefficient of variation of"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[625.0,1248.0,818.0,1248.0,818.0,1275.0,625.0,1275.0],"score":0.96,"text":".a unitless measure"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1277.0,345.0,1277.0,345.0,1307.0,148.0,1307.0],"score":0.97,"text":"of the variability of"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[370.0,1277.0,477.0,1277.0,477.0,1307.0,370.0,1307.0],"score":0.99,"text":"defined as"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[906.0,1883.0,1552.0,1883.0,1552.0,1910.0,906.0,1910.0],"score":0.98,"text":"Luethi et al. continued with the analysis of manually collected"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,1909.0,1552.0,1909.0,1552.0,1945.0,880.0,1945.0],"score":0.99,"text":"data on actual passenger behavior (6). They use the language"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[883.0,1945.0,1552.0,1945.0,1552.0,1972.0,883.0,1972.0],"score":0.99,"text":"of probability to describe two classes of passengers. The first is"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,1973.0,1552.0,1973.0,1552.0,2003.0,881.0,2003.0],"score":1.0,"text":"timetable-dependent passengers (i.e., the aware passengers), whose"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,2006.0,1552.0,2006.0,1552.0,2033.0,881.0,2033.0],"score":1.0,"text":"incidence behavior is affected by awareness (possibly gained"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,748.0,817.0,748.0,817.0,774.0,149.0,774.0],"score":1.0,"text":"One characterization of passenger incidence behavior is that of ran-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,777.0,818.0,777.0,818.0,806.0,148.0,806.0],"score":0.99,"text":"dom incidence (3). The key assumption underlying the random inci-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,807.0,818.0,807.0,818.0,836.0,148.0,836.0],"score":0.99,"text":"dence model is that the process of passenger arrivals to the public"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,837.0,819.0,837.0,819.0,866.0,148.0,866.0],"score":0.99,"text":"transport service is independent from the vehicle departure process"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,868.0,818.0,868.0,818.0,897.0,148.0,897.0],"score":1.0,"text":"of the service. This implies that passengers become incident to the"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,899.0,817.0,899.0,817.0,925.0,149.0,925.0],"score":0.99,"text":"service at a random time, and thus the instantaneous rate of passen-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,928.0,820.0,928.0,820.0,957.0,148.0,957.0],"score":1.0,"text":"ger arrivals to the service is uniform over a given period of time. Let"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[174.0,956.0,214.0,956.0,214.0,990.0,174.0,990.0],"score":1.0,"text":"and"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[239.0,956.0,818.0,956.0,818.0,990.0,239.0,990.0],"score":0.99,"text":"be random variables representing passenger waiting times"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,988.0,818.0,988.0,818.0,1016.0,148.0,1016.0],"score":1.0,"text":"and service headways, respectively. Under the random incidence"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,1019.0,818.0,1019.0,818.0,1048.0,149.0,1048.0],"score":0.98,"text":"assumption and the assumption that vehicle capacity is not a binding"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,1050.0,726.0,1050.0,726.0,1076.0,149.0,1076.0],"score":0.99,"text":"constraint, a classic result of transportation science is that"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[146.0,1793.0,818.0,1793.0,818.0,1822.0,146.0,1822.0],"score":0.98,"text":" Jolliffe and Hutchinson studied bus passenger incidence in South"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,1825.0,696.0,1825.0,696.0,1852.0,147.0,1852.0],"score":0.97,"text":"London suburbs (5). They observed 10 bus stops for"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[735.0,1825.0,817.0,1825.0,817.0,1852.0,735.0,1852.0],"score":1.0,"text":"perday"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1855.0,819.0,1855.0,819.0,1881.0,148.0,1881.0],"score":1.0,"text":"over 8 days, recording the times of passenger incidence and actual"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1884.0,819.0,1884.0,819.0,1912.0,148.0,1912.0],"score":0.98,"text":"and scheduled bus departures. They limited their stop selection to"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[146.0,1913.0,819.0,1913.0,819.0,1945.0,146.0,1945.0],"score":1.0,"text":"those served by only a single bus route with a single service pat-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,1945.0,819.0,1945.0,819.0,1974.0,147.0,1974.0],"score":0.98,"text":"tern so as to avoid ambiguity about which service a passenger was"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,1972.0,820.0,1972.0,820.0,2006.0,147.0,2006.0],"score":0.98,"text":"waiting for. The authors found that the actual average passenger"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,2005.0,323.0,2005.0,323.0,2033.0,149.0,2033.0],"score":0.96,"text":"waitingtimewas"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[374.0,2005.0,819.0,2005.0,819.0,2033.0,374.0,2033.0],"score":1.0,"text":"less than predicted by the random incidence"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,686.0,625.0,686.0,625.0,721.0,148.0,721.0],"score":0.99,"text":"Random Passenger Incidence Behavior"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[151.0,1434.0,213.0,1434.0,213.0,1462.0,151.0,1462.0],"score":0.99,"text":"where"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[246.0,1434.0,521.0,1434.0,521.0,1462.0,246.0,1462.0],"score":0.98,"text":"is the standard deviation of"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[580.0,1434.0,816.0,1434.0,816.0,1462.0,580.0,1462.0],"score":0.96,"text":".The second expression"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1466.0,819.0,1466.0,819.0,1493.0,148.0,1493.0],"score":0.99,"text":"in Equation 1 is particularly useful because it expresses the mean"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[146.0,1496.0,819.0,1496.0,819.0,1525.0,146.0,1525.0],"score":0.99,"text":"passenger waiting time as the sum of two components: the waiting"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1526.0,818.0,1526.0,818.0,1553.0,148.0,1553.0],"score":0.98,"text":"time caused by the mean headway (i.e., the reciprocal of service fre-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,1557.0,819.0,1557.0,819.0,1584.0,147.0,1584.0],"score":0.99,"text":"quency) and the waiting time caused by the variability of the head-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1588.0,818.0,1588.0,818.0,1612.0,148.0,1612.0],"score":0.97,"text":"ways (which is one measure of service reliability). When the service"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1617.0,817.0,1617.0,817.0,1644.0,148.0,1644.0],"score":1.0,"text":"is perfectly reliable with constant headways, the mean waiting time"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1646.0,472.0,1646.0,472.0,1677.0,148.0,1677.0],"score":0.99,"text":"will be simply half the headway."},{"category_id":15,"poly":[151.0,176.0,817.0,176.0,817.0,204.0,151.0,204.0],"score":0.99,"text":"dependent on the service headway and the reliability of the departure"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,205.0,652.0,205.0,652.0,236.0,147.0,236.0],"score":0.99,"text":"time of the service to which passengers are incident."},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,1735.0,702.0,1735.0,702.0,1767.0,149.0,1767.0],"score":0.98,"text":"More Behaviorally Realistic Incidence Models"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1519.0,98.0,1554.0,98.0,1554.0,125.0,1519.0,125.0],"score":1.0,"text":"53"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,98.0,322.0,98.0,322.0,123.0,148.0,123.0],"score":1.0,"text":"Frumin and Zhao"}],"page_info":{"page_no":0,"height":2200,"width":1700}}]}
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They also found that the empirical distributions of passenger"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,205.0,1552.0,205.0,1552.0,236.0,880.0,236.0],"score":0.99,"text":"incidence times (by time of day) had peaks just before the respec-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,234.0,1553.0,234.0,1553.0,264.0,880.0,264.0],"score":0.99,"text":"tive average bus departure times. They hypothesized the existence"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,264.0,1345.0,264.0,1345.0,296.0,881.0,296.0],"score":0.98,"text":"of three classes of passengers: with proportion"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1362.0,264.0,1552.0,264.0,1552.0,296.0,1362.0,296.0],"score":0.95,"text":"passengers whose"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,295.0,1552.0,295.0,1552.0,325.0,880.0,325.0],"score":1.0,"text":"time of incidence is causally coincident with that of a bus departure"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,326.0,1555.0,326.0,1555.0,355.0,880.0,355.0],"score":0.99,"text":"(e.g., because they saw the approaching bus from their home or a"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,356.0,1195.0,356.0,1195.0,388.0,881.0,388.0],"score":0.99,"text":"shop window); with proportion"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1279.0,356.0,1553.0,356.0,1553.0,388.0,1279.0,388.0],"score":0.99,"text":", passengers who time their"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,388.0,1552.0,388.0,1552.0,416.0,882.0,416.0],"score":0.99,"text":"arrivals to minimize expected waiting time; and with proportion"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1021.0,418.0,1553.0,418.0,1553.0,447.0,1021.0,447.0],"score":1.0,"text":", passengers who are randomly incident. The authors"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,448.0,989.0,448.0,989.0,477.0,881.0,477.0],"score":1.0,"text":"found that"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1008.0,448.0,1553.0,448.0,1553.0,477.0,1008.0,477.0],"score":1.0,"text":"was positively correlated with the potential reduction"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,479.0,1552.0,479.0,1552.0,507.0,880.0,507.0],"score":1.0,"text":"in waiting time (compared with arriving randomly) that resulted"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,510.0,1551.0,510.0,1551.0,536.0,882.0,536.0],"score":0.97,"text":"from knowledge of the timetable and of service reliability. They also"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,539.0,943.0,539.0,943.0,568.0,881.0,568.0],"score":1.0,"text":"found"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[963.0,539.0,1553.0,539.0,1553.0,568.0,963.0,568.0],"score":0.99,"text":"to be higher in the peak commuting periods rather than in"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,568.0,1554.0,568.0,1554.0,599.0,881.0,599.0],"score":0.98,"text":"the off-peak periods, indicating more awareness of the timetable or"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,599.0,1323.0,599.0,1323.0,627.0,881.0,627.0],"score":0.98,"text":"historical reliability, or both, by commuters."},{"category_id":15,"poly":[905.0,1452.0,1551.0,1452.0,1551.0,1483.0,905.0,1483.0],"score":0.99,"text":"Furth and Muller study the issue in a theoretical context and gener-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[883.0,1485.0,1553.0,1485.0,1553.0,1514.0,883.0,1514.0],"score":1.0,"text":"ally agree with the above findings (2). They are primarily concerned"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1513.0,1553.0,1513.0,1553.0,1545.0,882.0,1545.0],"score":0.99,"text":"with the use of data from automatic vehicle-tracking systems to assess"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,1545.0,1553.0,1545.0,1553.0,1574.0,880.0,1574.0],"score":0.99,"text":"the impacts of reliability on passenger incidence behavior and wait-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,1577.0,1551.0,1577.0,1551.0,1606.0,881.0,1606.0],"score":0.98,"text":"ing times. They propose that passengers will react to unreliability by"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[883.0,1608.0,1551.0,1608.0,1551.0,1637.0,883.0,1637.0],"score":1.0,"text":"departing earlier than they would with reliable services. Randomly"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,1636.0,1554.0,1636.0,1554.0,1669.0,880.0,1669.0],"score":1.0,"text":"incident unaware passengers will experience unreliability as a more"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1669.0,1553.0,1669.0,1553.0,1697.0,882.0,1697.0],"score":0.99,"text":"dispersed distribution of headways and simply allocate additional"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,1699.0,1551.0,1699.0,1551.0,1726.0,880.0,1726.0],"score":0.97,"text":"time to their trip plan to improve the chance of arriving at their des-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,1730.0,1551.0,1730.0,1551.0,1759.0,881.0,1759.0],"score":0.98,"text":"tination on time. Aware passengers, whose incidence is not entirely"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,1760.0,1552.0,1760.0,1552.0,1789.0,880.0,1789.0],"score":0.99,"text":"random, will react by timing their incidence somewhat earlier than"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1792.0,1550.0,1792.0,1550.0,1818.0,882.0,1818.0],"score":0.99,"text":"the scheduled departure time to increase their chance of catching the"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[883.0,1823.0,1552.0,1823.0,1552.0,1849.0,883.0,1849.0],"score":0.99,"text":"desired service. The authors characterize these reactions as the costs"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[883.0,1853.0,1031.0,1853.0,1031.0,1880.0,883.0,1880.0],"score":0.95,"text":"of unreliability."},{"category_id":15,"poly":[907.0,630.0,1553.0,630.0,1553.0,658.0,907.0,658.0],"score":1.0,"text":"Bowman and Turnquist built on the concept of aware and unaware"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,662.0,1136.0,662.0,1136.0,690.0,881.0,690.0],"score":0.99,"text":"passengers of proportions"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1155.0,662.0,1196.0,662.0,1196.0,690.0,1155.0,690.0],"score":1.0,"text":"and"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1264.0,662.0,1553.0,662.0,1553.0,690.0,1264.0,690.0],"score":0.99,"text":",respectively. They proposed"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,692.0,1208.0,692.0,1208.0,719.0,881.0,719.0],"score":0.99,"text":"a utility-based model to estimate"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1226.0,692.0,1552.0,692.0,1552.0,719.0,1226.0,719.0],"score":1.0,"text":"and the distribution of incidence"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,721.0,1554.0,721.0,1554.0,751.0,880.0,751.0],"score":0.99,"text":"times, and thus the mean waiting time, of aware passengers over"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,752.0,1553.0,752.0,1553.0,780.0,880.0,780.0],"score":0.98,"text":"a given headway as a function of the headway and reliability of"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,782.0,1081.0,782.0,1081.0,812.0,880.0,812.0],"score":0.99,"text":"bus departure times"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1113.0,782.0,1552.0,782.0,1552.0,812.0,1113.0,812.0],"score":0.99,"text":". They observed seven bus stops in Chicago,"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,813.0,1553.0,813.0,1553.0,841.0,882.0,841.0],"score":0.98,"text":"Illinois, each served by a single (different) bus route, between 6:00"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,844.0,923.0,844.0,923.0,871.0,882.0,871.0],"score":1.0,"text":"and"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1017.0,844.0,1550.0,844.0,1550.0,871.0,1017.0,871.0],"score":0.97,"text":".for 5 to 10 days each. The bus routes had headways"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,874.0,955.0,874.0,955.0,902.0,882.0,902.0],"score":0.95,"text":"of 5to"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1033.0,874.0,1553.0,874.0,1553.0,902.0,1033.0,902.0],"score":0.98,"text":"and a range of reliabilities. The authors found that"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,906.0,1553.0,906.0,1553.0,933.0,882.0,933.0],"score":0.99,"text":"actual average waiting time was substantially less than predicted"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,935.0,1443.0,935.0,1443.0,963.0,881.0,963.0],"score":1.0,"text":"by the random incidence model. They estimated that"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1462.0,935.0,1553.0,935.0,1553.0,963.0,1462.0,963.0],"score":0.96,"text":"was not"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,966.0,1552.0,966.0,1552.0,994.0,881.0,994.0],"score":0.98,"text":"statistically significantly different from 1.0, which they explain by"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,994.0,1552.0,994.0,1552.0,1025.0,880.0,1025.0],"score":0.99,"text":"the fact that all observations were taken during peak commuting"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,1027.0,1552.0,1027.0,1552.0,1054.0,880.0,1054.0],"score":0.99,"text":"times. Their model predicts that the longer the headway and the"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,1058.0,1554.0,1058.0,1554.0,1086.0,881.0,1086.0],"score":0.99,"text":"more reliable the departures, the more peaked the distribution of"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,1088.0,1553.0,1088.0,1553.0,1115.0,881.0,1115.0],"score":0.98,"text":"incidence times will be and the closer that peak will be to the next"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1119.0,1552.0,1119.0,1552.0,1148.0,882.0,1148.0],"score":1.0,"text":"scheduled departure time. This prediction demonstrates what they"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1149.0,1552.0,1149.0,1552.0,1176.0,882.0,1176.0],"score":0.99,"text":"refer to as a safety margin that passengers add to reduce the chance"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[883.0,1181.0,1552.0,1181.0,1552.0,1206.0,883.0,1206.0],"score":0.98,"text":"of missing their bus when the service is known to be somewhat"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1210.0,1551.0,1210.0,1551.0,1238.0,882.0,1238.0],"score":0.98,"text":"unreliable. Such a safety margin can also result from unreliability in"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,1242.0,1553.0,1242.0,1553.0,1269.0,881.0,1269.0],"score":0.99,"text":"passengers' journeys to the public transport stop or station. Bowman"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1271.0,1553.0,1271.0,1553.0,1299.0,882.0,1299.0],"score":0.99,"text":"and Turnquist conclude from their model that the random incidence"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,1301.0,1551.0,1301.0,1551.0,1331.0,880.0,1331.0],"score":0.99,"text":"model underestimates the waiting time benefits of improving reli-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1332.0,1552.0,1332.0,1552.0,1362.0,882.0,1362.0],"score":0.99,"text":"ability and overestimates the waiting time benefits of increasing ser-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[883.0,1363.0,1552.0,1363.0,1552.0,1392.0,883.0,1392.0],"score":0.99,"text":"vice frequency. This is because as reliability increases passengers"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1394.0,1552.0,1394.0,1552.0,1422.0,882.0,1422.0],"score":0.99,"text":"can better predict departure times and so can time their incidence to"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[882.0,1423.0,1159.0,1423.0,1159.0,1452.0,882.0,1452.0],"score":0.99,"text":"decrease their waiting time."},{"category_id":15,"poly":[175.0,235.0,819.0,235.0,819.0,264.0,175.0,264.0],"score":0.99,"text":"After briefly introducing the random incidence model, which is"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,265.0,818.0,265.0,818.0,295.0,149.0,295.0],"score":0.98,"text":"often assumed to hold at short headways, the balance of this section"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,298.0,818.0,298.0,818.0,324.0,148.0,324.0],"score":0.98,"text":"reviews six studies of passenger incidence behavior that are moti-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,327.0,818.0,327.0,818.0,356.0,148.0,356.0],"score":1.0,"text":"vated by understanding the relationships between service headway,"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[146.0,355.0,820.0,355.0,820.0,388.0,146.0,388.0],"score":0.99,"text":"service reliability, passenger incidence behavior, and passenger"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,388.0,818.0,388.0,818.0,414.0,149.0,414.0],"score":1.0,"text":"waiting time in a more nuanced fashion than is embedded in the"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,419.0,818.0,419.0,818.0,445.0,149.0,445.0],"score":1.0,"text":"random incidence assumption (2). Three of these studies depend on"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,447.0,818.0,447.0,818.0,477.0,147.0,477.0],"score":0.99,"text":"manually collected data, two studies use data from AFC systems,"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,479.0,819.0,479.0,819.0,507.0,148.0,507.0],"score":0.99,"text":"and one study analyzes the issue purely theoretically. These studies"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,509.0,819.0,509.0,819.0,537.0,147.0,537.0],"score":0.99,"text":"reveal much about passenger incidence behavior, but all are found"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,538.0,820.0,538.0,820.0,567.0,147.0,567.0],"score":0.99,"text":"to be limited in their general applicability by the methods with"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[150.0,569.0,818.0,569.0,818.0,597.0,150.0,597.0],"score":0.99,"text":"which they collect information about passengers and the services"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,599.0,458.0,599.0,458.0,630.0,147.0,630.0],"score":1.0,"text":"those passengers intend to use."},{"category_id":15,"poly":[150.0,1219.0,212.0,1219.0,212.0,1247.0,150.0,1247.0],"score":1.0,"text":"where"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[264.0,1219.0,817.0,1219.0,817.0,1247.0,264.0,1247.0],"score":0.99,"text":"is the probabilistic expectation of some random variable"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[168.0,1248.0,209.0,1248.0,209.0,1275.0,168.0,1275.0],"score":1.0,"text":"and"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[283.0,1248.0,601.0,1248.0,601.0,1275.0,283.0,1275.0],"score":0.97,"text":"is the coefficient of variation of"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[625.0,1248.0,818.0,1248.0,818.0,1275.0,625.0,1275.0],"score":0.96,"text":".a unitless measure"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1277.0,345.0,1277.0,345.0,1307.0,148.0,1307.0],"score":0.97,"text":"of the variability of"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[370.0,1277.0,477.0,1277.0,477.0,1307.0,370.0,1307.0],"score":0.99,"text":"defined as"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[906.0,1883.0,1552.0,1883.0,1552.0,1910.0,906.0,1910.0],"score":0.98,"text":"Luethi et al. continued with the analysis of manually collected"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[880.0,1909.0,1552.0,1909.0,1552.0,1945.0,880.0,1945.0],"score":0.99,"text":"data on actual passenger behavior (6). They use the language"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[883.0,1945.0,1552.0,1945.0,1552.0,1972.0,883.0,1972.0],"score":0.99,"text":"of probability to describe two classes of passengers. The first is"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,1973.0,1552.0,1973.0,1552.0,2003.0,881.0,2003.0],"score":1.0,"text":"timetable-dependent passengers (i.e., the aware passengers), whose"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[881.0,2006.0,1552.0,2006.0,1552.0,2033.0,881.0,2033.0],"score":1.0,"text":"incidence behavior is affected by awareness (possibly gained"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,748.0,817.0,748.0,817.0,774.0,149.0,774.0],"score":1.0,"text":"One characterization of passenger incidence behavior is that of ran-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,777.0,818.0,777.0,818.0,806.0,148.0,806.0],"score":0.99,"text":"dom incidence (3). The key assumption underlying the random inci-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,807.0,818.0,807.0,818.0,836.0,148.0,836.0],"score":0.99,"text":"dence model is that the process of passenger arrivals to the public"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,837.0,819.0,837.0,819.0,866.0,148.0,866.0],"score":0.99,"text":"transport service is independent from the vehicle departure process"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,868.0,818.0,868.0,818.0,897.0,148.0,897.0],"score":1.0,"text":"of the service. This implies that passengers become incident to the"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,899.0,817.0,899.0,817.0,925.0,149.0,925.0],"score":0.99,"text":"service at a random time, and thus the instantaneous rate of passen-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,928.0,820.0,928.0,820.0,957.0,148.0,957.0],"score":1.0,"text":"ger arrivals to the service is uniform over a given period of time. Let"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[174.0,956.0,214.0,956.0,214.0,990.0,174.0,990.0],"score":1.0,"text":"and"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[239.0,956.0,818.0,956.0,818.0,990.0,239.0,990.0],"score":0.99,"text":"be random variables representing passenger waiting times"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,988.0,818.0,988.0,818.0,1016.0,148.0,1016.0],"score":1.0,"text":"and service headways, respectively. Under the random incidence"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,1019.0,818.0,1019.0,818.0,1048.0,149.0,1048.0],"score":0.98,"text":"assumption and the assumption that vehicle capacity is not a binding"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,1050.0,726.0,1050.0,726.0,1076.0,149.0,1076.0],"score":0.99,"text":"constraint, a classic result of transportation science is that"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[146.0,1793.0,818.0,1793.0,818.0,1822.0,146.0,1822.0],"score":0.98,"text":" Jolliffe and Hutchinson studied bus passenger incidence in South"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,1825.0,696.0,1825.0,696.0,1852.0,147.0,1852.0],"score":0.97,"text":"London suburbs (5). They observed 10 bus stops for"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[735.0,1825.0,817.0,1825.0,817.0,1852.0,735.0,1852.0],"score":1.0,"text":"perday"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1855.0,819.0,1855.0,819.0,1881.0,148.0,1881.0],"score":1.0,"text":"over 8 days, recording the times of passenger incidence and actual"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1884.0,819.0,1884.0,819.0,1912.0,148.0,1912.0],"score":0.98,"text":"and scheduled bus departures. They limited their stop selection to"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[146.0,1913.0,819.0,1913.0,819.0,1945.0,146.0,1945.0],"score":1.0,"text":"those served by only a single bus route with a single service pat-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,1945.0,819.0,1945.0,819.0,1974.0,147.0,1974.0],"score":0.98,"text":"tern so as to avoid ambiguity about which service a passenger was"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,1972.0,820.0,1972.0,820.0,2006.0,147.0,2006.0],"score":0.98,"text":"waiting for. The authors found that the actual average passenger"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,2005.0,323.0,2005.0,323.0,2033.0,149.0,2033.0],"score":0.96,"text":"waitingtimewas"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[374.0,2005.0,819.0,2005.0,819.0,2033.0,374.0,2033.0],"score":1.0,"text":"less than predicted by the random incidence"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,686.0,625.0,686.0,625.0,721.0,148.0,721.0],"score":0.99,"text":"Random Passenger Incidence Behavior"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[151.0,1434.0,213.0,1434.0,213.0,1462.0,151.0,1462.0],"score":0.99,"text":"where"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[246.0,1434.0,521.0,1434.0,521.0,1462.0,246.0,1462.0],"score":0.98,"text":"is the standard deviation of"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[580.0,1434.0,816.0,1434.0,816.0,1462.0,580.0,1462.0],"score":0.96,"text":".The second expression"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1466.0,819.0,1466.0,819.0,1493.0,148.0,1493.0],"score":0.99,"text":"in Equation 1 is particularly useful because it expresses the mean"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[146.0,1496.0,819.0,1496.0,819.0,1525.0,146.0,1525.0],"score":0.99,"text":"passenger waiting time as the sum of two components: the waiting"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1526.0,818.0,1526.0,818.0,1553.0,148.0,1553.0],"score":0.98,"text":"time caused by the mean headway (i.e., the reciprocal of service fre-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,1557.0,819.0,1557.0,819.0,1584.0,147.0,1584.0],"score":0.99,"text":"quency) and the waiting time caused by the variability of the head-"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1588.0,818.0,1588.0,818.0,1612.0,148.0,1612.0],"score":0.97,"text":"ways (which is one measure of service reliability). When the service"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1617.0,817.0,1617.0,817.0,1644.0,148.0,1644.0],"score":1.0,"text":"is perfectly reliable with constant headways, the mean waiting time"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,1646.0,472.0,1646.0,472.0,1677.0,148.0,1677.0],"score":0.99,"text":"will be simply half the headway."},{"category_id":15,"poly":[151.0,176.0,817.0,176.0,817.0,204.0,151.0,204.0],"score":0.99,"text":"dependent on the service headway and the reliability of the departure"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[147.0,205.0,652.0,205.0,652.0,236.0,147.0,236.0],"score":0.99,"text":"time of the service to which passengers are incident."},{"category_id":15,"poly":[149.0,1735.0,702.0,1735.0,702.0,1767.0,149.0,1767.0],"score":0.98,"text":"More Behaviorally Realistic Incidence Models"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[1519.0,98.0,1554.0,98.0,1554.0,125.0,1519.0,125.0],"score":1.0,"text":"53"},{"category_id":15,"poly":[148.0,98.0,322.0,98.0,322.0,123.0,148.0,123.0],"score":1.0,"text":"Frumin and Zhao"}],"page_info":{"page_no":0,"height":2200,"width":1700}}]
